Bank Holiday Preview | Wealdstone (h) | Wrexham (a)
Wealdstone (h)
Notts will be hoping it truly is a ‘Good Friday’ as they welcome Wealdstone to Meadow Lane. The part time outfit have defied the odds this season, with playoffs still not out of the realms of possibility for the Stones. However, with 8 points now separating them from that all important 7th place, this game feels like a must win, adding even more jeopardy to an already important game. Notts too need a win, to ensure they go into their clash with Wrexham still in touching distance, meaning this is a game of real significance.
It will also be a clash between 2 sides who look to get on the ball and dominate possession. Visitors Wealdstone rank 4th in the league in terms of ball retention, averaging 55.4% possession so far this season. Stuart Maynard likes to get his side to recycle the ball, especially round the back, drawing the opposition out of their shape to create openings. When you consider the Wealdstone players only train a few times a week, due to their part time status, this is especially impressive.
However, the Stones are likely going to need to adapt their play when they visit Meadow Lane. Followers of the Magpies will know by now that Notts dominate the ball like no other side at this level. In fact, their average possession is an incredible 69.7%, just a ridiculous number. Notts are unlikely to compromise on an approach which has garnered 97 points to this point, especially at home, so it’s likely Wealdstone are the side that are going to have to adjust their style. They will spend large portions of the game out of possession, something unfamiliar to them, and Notts must look to press this advantage early on.
However, the Stones are likely going to need to adapt their play when they visit Meadow Lane. Followers of the Magpies will know by now that Notts dominate the ball like no other side at this level. In fact, their average possession is an incredible 69.7%, just a ridiculous number. Notts are unlikely to compromise on an approach which has garnered 97 points to this point, especially at home, so it’s likely Wealdstone are the side that are going to have to adjust their style. They will spend large portions of the game out of possession, something unfamiliar to them, and Notts must look to press this advantage early on.
Current Form:
Three defeats and a draw in their last 4 games has probably put to bed any thoughts Wealdstone may have had of making the play-off's.
In fact two of their three wins in the last 10 outings were against clubs, who at the time of playing were holding up the bottom of the table. 8 Goals in their last 6 outings compared to 16 conceded suggests they are not now going to be pulling up any trees for the remainder of the season.
Wealdstone are clearly a team that like to try and play with the ball to feet, looking to maintain possession as much as possible. However, a distinct lack of press or challenge intensity are indicative of traits we have seen at Notts in previous seasons. It's one thing passing around the back to create openings further up the field, it's another thing if your advanced options don't necessarily have the skill sets to help create those openings. This results in a great deal of back line possession and not a great deal of attacking threat. The lack of territory and wing play from Wealdstone is a clear indication that this is an area they have struggled with in recent games.
Tactics & Players:
Wealdstone are tactically flexible though, something they have shown in their team shape over the recent months. Boss Stuart Maynard, who is a BT Engineer in his everyday life, has set his side up to be able to play a 4-1-4-1, but just as easily transition to a 5-3-2, such is the fluidity in their side. It can’t be overstated how incredible the job Stuart Maynard is doing; he featured as our Q1 Best Manager, and for good reason. He gets his side playing attractive, effective football, all on a tiny budget and less training hours. It’s remarkable.
Wealdstone have fluidity in their attacking options too. The quartet of Corie Andrews, Micah Obiero, Tarryn Allarakhia and Olufela Olomola have all played important roles this season, and often interchange. This is especially the case of Obiero and Allarakhia, who have operated on the wings, through the centre, in midfield or even at wing back at times this season, such is their flexibility.
Andrews is a recent recruit, having joined from Torquay, where he failed to hit the back of the net. However, as Maynard tends to do, he soon had Andrews firing. The athletic forward already has 3 goals to his name in a Wealdstone shirt, and on the break he is the most likely to cause Notts issues. Andrews has EFL quality, and with Maynard beginning to unlock his potential he is a real danger man come Friday.
Maynard will face a tough decision in who he opts to pair Andrews with in attack, as both Olomola and Obiero have 7 goals to their name, the highest of any Wealdstone player still with the club. Olomola is a powerful forward, one who is strong despite his short stature. He is also in form, having scored a crucial goal in their 2-2 draw with Oldham last time out, so he will feel he merits his place in the side. That was Olomola’s first goal since Boxing Day though, so Notts will be hoping it isn’t the start of a goalscoring run.
The other option, Micah Obiero, may be a name familiar to Notts fans, as he netted Wealdstone’s only goal in their 6-1 defeat in the reverse fixture. He was a bright spark that night, and showed that he is a young player with real promise. Quick and tricky, Obiero is a talented forward in and around the box. He’s versatile too, having played at wing back/winger last time out, despite being most comfortable in a central forward role. The 22 year old’s story becomes even more interesting when you consider he started this season on the bench for Boston United. After playing just 181 minutes in 7 appearances, Obiero opted to move on, and has found his fortune is far brighter in the south. He’s likely to be a danger man once more this Friday, and Notts will be aware of the threat he poses.
Stats:
Wealdstone currently sit 10th in the league on 56 points, 8 points behind Eastleigh who currently occupy the last play off place.
On the road Stones have not had the worst season managing 6 wins and 6 draws from 20 games.
In attack they are averaging 1.31 goals per game compared to an xG of 1.16 so performing a fraction better than expected in front of goal.
Defensively they record similarly conceding 1.56 goals per game compared to 1.64 xCG.
In Notts Wealdstone will come up against a team that has averaged 2.35 goals per game at home conceding just 0.55 goals per home game played.
Wealdstone Away Form:
P 20 | W 6 | D 6 | L 8 | F 21 | A 34 | GD -13 | PTS 24
Leading Scorers:
Notts:
Macaulay Langstaff - 40 (xG 32.91)
Wealdstone:
Micah Obiero - 7 (xG 4.07)
Olufela Olomola - 7 (xG 7.93)
Odds:
Notts at home means ridiculous odds as favourites once again with the best currently available being 3/20 from VBet.
William Hill are offering 16/1 for the away win and you can get 29/4 for the draw with bwin.
Based on these odds there is a 87% chance of a Notts win and 5.88% chance of a Wealdstone win.
Wrexham (a)
Wrexham boss Phil Parkinson came in for some criticism when he failed to land promotion last term, and the pressure mounted after a mixed start. However, he has silenced the critics this season, delivering 100 points and 105 goals by early April. And while Parkinson undoubtedly has the best tools at his disposal in this division, it is a difficult, and unique task, to get all of the star players on the same page. To get players of their ability to play as a collective, rather than a group of individuals, is a trickier prospect than one might expect. And whatever one might think of Parkinson and his tactics, they cannot deny he has cultivated a harmonious dressing room, one with a winning attitude.
Current Form:
Not a great deal to discuss here. it's clear Wrexham know how to win games and that is confirmed in the fact you have to go right back to their defeat at Meadow Lane in early October before seeing an 'L' in their league results table.
There is an interesting dichotomy in the way people who don't regularly watch Wrexham perceive their style of play. There is no doubting they are a strong physical side and one that makes the most of direct play and set pieces. However, they are mor