Match 11 - Woking (h)

Notts County - 1

Wootton 80'


Woking - 0


Dogged, disjointed, turgid, determined, resilient . . . there were many adjectives used to describe the Magpies performance against a well organised Woking, but ultimately it's three clean sheets on the bounce and another 3 points.


Notts Line Up (4-2-3-1)

Sam Slocombe

Dion Kelly-Evans

Ben Turner

Connell Rawlinson

Richard Brindley

Jake Reeves

Michael Doyle (C)

Elisha Sam (Enzio Boldewijn 60')

Tom Walker (Jimmy Knowles 81')

Ruben Rodrigues (Jim O'Brien 69')

Kyle Wootton


Substitutes not used:

Adam Chicksen

Luke Pilling


There was a first start for loanee Tom Walker and Richard Brindley was back in the starting line up meaning Kelly-Evans moved back over to left back at the expense of Adam Chicksen.


Kyle Wootton will no doubt make the headlines, and not necessarily for the right reasons, but it was an inspired 30 minutes from substitute Enzio Boldewijn that really made the difference with the game edging ever closer to another goaless draw for the Magpies.


Onto the numbers starting as usual with the key match stats.


Player stats updated. You can use the search function to see individual players or sort by column.

Minutes played updated and we still have 3 players that have played every single minute of the eason so far.

Goal contribution table updated.

Goal participation by minute detailing player goal contribution efficiency.

Points needed and with 11 games played Notts now have a PPG of 1.818 which would see a return of just under 80 points for 44 games. Ignoring the fact Torquay continue to have a stormer of a start to the season 80 points would generally see a top 3 finish and starts to sew the seeds for a possible title challenge.

Results tracker updated and an indication that Notts are starting to shows signs of last seasons form.


League progress, now up to third place for the second time this season and 10 places higher than at this point for the previous season.

Remember you can view league table, latest form, match info and player stats here all of which allow you to search by team/value and also sort by column.


Goal time segments updated and Notts are now showing a propensity for late goals a well as early goals although only one goal has been scored between the 31st and 75th minute suggesting they are not very effective during this period of games.


A look at expected goals (xG) now and after much soul searching and desperately trying to come up with a formula that was an accurate reflection of performance I have decided to source paid for data that I think will add a great deal more credibility and insight to the statistical analysis provided in these reports. I'd like to thank @piethagoram on Twitter for pointing me in the right direction for this.


The big change with the new xG data is how it is collated. In brief every shot is reviewed and a weighted value is applied to each goal attempt depending on the difficulty and historical likelihood of that attempt being converted into a goal.


For example things like defensive pressure, goalkeeper position, shot difficulty (overhead kicks, backheels etc) and things of that nature are accurately recorded.


Additionally for an extra layer of accuracy, edited match highlights of the game are viewed to ensure any big chances that don’t end up being a shot have not been missed by the model (think Gazza Euro 96 semi-final v Germany, stretching for the ball but an inch away).


Added to the xG stats we will also be able to deliver some xPts analysis as well. The great thing about the xPts model is that it provides an indication of performance vs actual points essentially detailing the amount of points a team would be expected to get based on performances. This is based on a Monte Carlo simulation which is a formula that replays every game 10,000 times ensuring a high percentage of accuracy.


The data is delivered on Thursday's and Monday's so I will include this in the match previews rather than the post match reports as it will likely hold more value to pre match analysis especially when assessing team strengths, weaknesses and relative form.


Moving on and the interactive goal scatter chart updated below. Like before hover over a dot to see info about that goal.


Of the 18 goals scored by Notts so far this season 15 have come from open play with 3 goals being scored from outside the penalty area.


There appears to be a pattern emerging of goals being scored in the penalty area which is in contrast to last season where we witnessed alot of long range goals. This might suggest a change in tactics and a desire to get the ball into danger areas as often as possible rather than relying on speculative pot shots from distance.

Player ratings updated and despite another missed penalty for Wootton he continues to hold on to top spot. Boldewijn scores highly for a 30 minute cameo and the 3rd clean sheet in a row sees the defensive players continue to improve their ratings.


Neal Ardley's record updated:

Another home game on Tuesday night against Boreham Wood and another great chance for Notts to establish a firm foothold in the top three and close the gap on Torquay and Sutton.


Until then . . .


COYP!

Richard


Images: Joseph Raynor (Nottingham Post)