Match 29 - Boreham Wood (a)

As expected Notts started with the 3-5-2 formation that provided some success at Wealdstone, unfortunately so did Boreham Wood who tend to play that system all the time.


Boreham Wood - 2

Marsh (2'), Tshimanga (55')


Notts County - 2

Lacey (75'), Effiong (Pen 88')


Notts Line Up (3-5-2)

Sam Slocombe

Mark Ellis

Alex Lacey

Connell Rawlinson (Jimmy Knowles 66')

Calvin Miller

Jake Reeves

Michael Doyle (C)

Enzio Boldewijn

Ruben Rodrigues (Jim O'Brien 90')

Kyle Wootton

Elisha Sam (Inih Effiong 66')


Substitutes not used:

Ben Turner

Dion Kelly-Evans


Once again I've bundled together the match stats from Boreham Wood and the Yeovil preview.


We'll start with the draw at The Wood and from a fans perspective it was another disappointing performance despite the fightback. Conceding another early goal from outside the box is something that really needs addressing but it does appear that whatever formation we set up in we struggle to close down and win the second ball in the middle of the pitch.


One positive is that for the first time in a while we have bettered or matched our opponents with the number chances created in the last 2 matches which compared to more recent games is definitely a step in the right direction. However playing arguably our most creative attacking player at right back was a real head scratcher and whilst I understand that it wasn't the initial intention for Enzio to sit so deep we quickly became 5 at the back and reverted to a defensive mindset after the first goal went in.


My only other observation would be the second half subs. Whilst I appreciate bringing on two forwards was attack minded, and in some respects helped in getting the draw, I can't help but think the better option would have been to bring Kelly-Evans on instead of one of the forwards and get Enzio higher up the pitch where we know he can do more damage.


Key match stats and on paper a very even affair.


Progress updated and the draw sees Notts drop a place to 7th which is fractionally below our 'natural' position for the season so far. It's interesting to see that it was around this time last season that Notts started to find some form prior to the run in.

Results tracker updated:

Points needed and still projected for a top 3 finish compared to targets. I will reassess these targets in a couple of weeks to see how they might differ from projected points for this season.

League segment chart updated. Grey bar shows total points available for that segment. Green bar shows total points gained and yellow bar the PPG for that segment.


First game in this segment so just the 1 point so far.

Points by time segment. How many points would have been accumulated if games had finished at 15, 30, 45, 60, 75 and 90 minutes.


There is a pattern emerging of points being lost in the latter stages of home games and points being gained during the latter stages of away games which would emphasise the improvement in away form over home form.

Onto player stats now and remember you can use the search function to see individual players or click on a column heading to sort highest to lowest etc.


Minutes played also displayed below and Neal Ardley has now utilised 29 players.

Minutes played 20/21 all competitions Notts County Match 16

Goal contribution table updated and Lacey and Effiong are added for the first time.

Goal participation by minute detailing player goal contribution efficiency.

Goals scatter chart updated.

Goals by time segment updated.


Expected goals stats and Boreham Wood had the edge. Notts again managed to score more than expected from the chances created. Note that the penalty although shown as a goal in the timeline is not actually included in the xG numbers. As explained previously a penalty has a xG rating of 0.76 but cannot form part of the xG for a game because it is not really a chance that resulted in an attempt at goal. As we saw in the game on Tuesday night the penalty was awarded for a potentially erroneous hand ball after a header from Kyle Wootton. Kyle's header is included in the match xG (see below) but not the actual penalty.


Penalties are included in the xPTS calculations.


Breakdown below of the key xG stats and you can see how including the penalty alters the expected points for that match. Without the penalty Boreham Wood would be expected to go on and win the game but that penalty actually changed things to the point that Notts would have been expected to poach a late winner.


Player xG stats below.

Effiong's penalty meant he had the highest xG rating for Notts but Wootton's 3 chances in open play gave a return of 0.61. You would expect Lacey's goal to have a higher rating but when you consider the chances of scoring from a corner, how close the keeper got to intercepting the ball and the goalmouth scramble that ensued it's no surprise it only warranted an xG of 0.33.


Neal Ardley's record updated.


Preview | Yeovil Town (h) | Vanarama National League | 15:00

Saturday 20th March 2021 | Meadow Lane


Notts face Yeovil on Saturday which should have been the second meeting between the two sides but is actually taking place at the third time of asking following two previous postponements for the away fixture.


Yeovil currently sit 12th in the league and 8th in the recent form table with 3 wins and 3 defeats. After a terrible start to the season they have rallied and started to put some decent results together. Interestingly more recently they either win or lose, the last time they recorded a draw was 22 games ago against Woking on 14th November.


Recent form radar and its a bit of a mixed bag with Yeovil having the best attack, home form and recent form.


Goals for/against by time segment for Yeovil and it appears they tend to be busy at both ends of the pitch having scored 43 goals and conceded 45.

xG for Yeovil so far this season and it's interesting to see that their expected goals has been pretty steady but since they got over their early bad patch actual goals starts to increase quite dramatically. After 28 games their expected goals totalled just under 32 whereas they have actually scored 43 goals, over 11 more than expected.

Yeovil's over achieving in the xG stats is noticeable when it comes to expected points. You can see in the graph below that after 10 games they were some distance away with their actual points compared to expected. However their sudden improvement in form sees them claw their way back and are currently where you would expect them to be as far as points are concerned.

What I love about both the above graphs is that it clearly shows how a team can be seen to be scoring the expected amount of goals but not getting the results expected and how that can change once you start getting the results you deserve.


Season xG and xPTS for Notts below. Actual and expected goals still tracking each other closely although actual goals is still fractionally higher than expected which would suggest we still need to be creating a few more chances.

Notts are currently on 42 points but based on performances expected points sits at fractionally over 37 which means Notts have essentially over achieved by 5 points so far.


Yeovil are averaging 1.55 goals per game and create 10.50 chances per 90 mins meaning they score a goal every 6.77 attempts which means they are quite effective in front of goal.


The problem is they pretty much mimic this at the other end where they are shipping 1.57 goals per game from 9.61 chances faced meaning they are conceding every 6.12 attempts faced which would suggest they are not very resilient in defence although it is fair to say this has improved a little in recent games.


Notts are averaging just 1.28 goals per game and create 12.78 chances per game meaning they score a goal every 9.98 attempts.


At the other end Notts continue to hold top spot in the defence table conceding just 0.84 goals per game from 9.30 chances faced meaning it normally takes at least 11 attempts on goal to score against the Magpies.


Lead status for the two clubs and Notts appear to have the edge.

Bookies appear to have Notts as favourites at around 9/10 with Yeovil at 3/1 for the away win and 12/5 for the draw.


Based on these odds Notts have a 52% chance of winning and Yeovil 25%.


If Notts have any aspirations of challenging for the title then they need to start finding a bit of form sooner rather than later, starting with a win at home in the league for the first time since that perplexing 10 man defeat of Dagenham in early February.


As always thanks for reading . . .


COYP!

Richard

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