Match 31 - Yeovil Town (a)
No sooner are we dissecting another head scratching performance that we find ourselves lamenting the departure of Neal Ardley but then digesting the appointment of a new "Head Coach" in Ian Burchnall.
It's often said a week is a long time in football, well there has been a hell of a lot crammed into just a few days in what has been a real rollercoaster of a week at Notts County.
Before we get into the weeks events let's take a look back at the stats from the Yeovil game. I've not posted as much as normal because much of it is repeated and I would recommend spending some time on the website here where most of the stats are presented in interactive visualisations.
Key match stats and unfortunately I am missing the "Attacks" data for this game.
Points needed compared to targets based on previous seasons still has Notts projected for a top 3 position.
Progress updated now and the draw ensured Notts hang on to 6th position which has pretty much become the norm over recent weeks. It's interesting to see that after the same number of games last season we were also in 6th place. I suppose the difference is that last season we were on an upward trajectory whereas this season our league position has become quite static.
Player stats updated.
Goals and assists table updated. Interactive version available on the website.
xG data for the draw at Yeovil and if ever there was a game of two halves this was it. Yeovil's threat all but dried up by the 59th minute as Notts eventually found their attacking boots.
Ruben Rodrigues' tap in had the highest xG rating of 0.67 but Ben Turner's header and Kyle Wootton's missed chance in added time also scored highly. At the other end of the scale Enzio had so much work to do from his effort it only registered a 0.03 xG rating meaning the difficulty rating for that goal was very high.
Key xG stats for the match and despite the poor start Notts had enough chances in the end to come away with all three points recording a 49.72% win probability and 1.777 xPTS.
Finally one last look at Neal Ardley's record. It's difficult to believe that just a couple of weeks ago we were looking back on Ardley's 100 games managing the club.
It is clear that the owners have not seen the improvement they had hoped for this season and have been thinking about this decision for a while. I'm not going to cover old ground and repeat what most people have already said elsewhere, but I was saddened like many with Ardley's departure as I know so many of us were desperate for him to find success with Notts. I just hope when he has time to reflect and look back at his time at Meadow Lane it is with affection and that he knows he can move forward in his future challenges with his head held high.
Neal Ardley's final record . . .
Despite that terrible relegation season Ardley has still managed a win percentage of 43% in all competitions and his points tally in the league means he joins Jocky Scott in 15th place in the all time Notts manager PPG table on 1.47.
Looking ahead and we have our new man, Ian Burchnall. At the time of writing no more than twelve hours have passed since the announcement of this appointment and I reckon even in this short space of time he has probably become the most googled new manager/head coach by Notts fans in living history.
A first look at Burchnall's managerial stats wouldn't fill you with a great deal of confidence, just 26 wins in 90 games and 1.08 PPG. But I would urge you to scrape beneath the surface and it's clear to see why the Reedtz brothers thought he was worthy of a closer look.
Burchnall has dedicated his career to coaching and has acknowledged the part data driven analysis now plays in the modern game which makes him a perfect fit for the owners and their philosophy for the club.
For me it is an exciting prospect and I look forward to analysing the clubs progress, results and tactics with intrigue and anticipation, starting on Saturday with the FA Trophy semi final at home to Hornchurch.
The "Mighty" Urchins ply their trade in the Isthmian Premier League where they were in 9th place after 10 games before their league season was curtailed due to the pandemic.
They have of course continued to compete in the trophy and their last game was a commendable away win at National League North side Darlington on the 27th February.
As you'd expect Notts are outright favourites for the win and the best odds I can find right now are 33/100 for the Notts win but if you fancy your chances on an upset you can get just over 8/1 on Hornchurch.
This is just the kind of game that can cause an upset and whatever side Ian Burchnall decides to put out they will have to ensure they are at the races from the first whistle, now that would make a nice change wouldn't it!
As always thanks for reading.