Notts County 3 - 0 Chesterfield
Wootton 59', 76'
Back to winning ways with a hard fought victory at home to Chesterfield in front of the live TV cameras.
This was Notts' 8th home win in the league this season and the 4th time they have won by 3 or more goals in the league in all matches.
Key match stats would indicate it was an even affair and probably flatter Chesterfield slightly although they did have more attempts on target, more corners and a penalty saved which would suggest Notts' defence was pretty resolute but more of that later.
A current PPG of 1.56 now sees a season total prediction of just under 72 points, 3 points adrift of the 75 point target.
Results elsewhere though were favourable to Notts and the predicted points currently needed for 7th is now down to 70.
Points needed for third place has dropped a little to 77 points and Barrow are currently predicted to finish first on 90 points.
For the first time I have calculated a predicted finish for Notts taking into account PPG for the last 10 games which would provide a better overview of current form and hopefully a more realistic prediction.
Based on the last 10 games Notts would actually gain an additional 27 points from the remaining games finishing on 77 points which would, as it stands put them in contention for a top 3 finish.
Notts have 31 points from 17 games at home and a PPG average of 1.82.
A move back up to 6th place on goal difference over Bromley. Our average position for the season still hovers around 11th, however that improves to 8th based on the last 12 games.
Season stats after this weekend's matches vs the NL average.
Goals scored/conceded by time segment.
Moving onto player stats and minutes played all competitions for the season. Another 90 mins in the bag for Fitzsimons, and what a 90 mins it was! Jim O'Brien managed to get another 79 minutes in his legs and Roberts impressed in his home debut.
Kyle Wootton found his scoring boots again to maintain his position as leading scorer with 14 goals in all competitions. Enzio now joins him at the top of the goal influence stats with his 8th goal and 8th assist of the season.
Callum Roberts makes an early entry into the goal and assist influencers charts with his assist for Woottons first goal meaning it took him just 154 minutes in a Notts shirt to make his first contribution.
Wootton and Enzio are joint goal contributors on 16 each.
Kyle Wootton now 4 goals clear of Thomas and Dennis for leading scorer although Dennis is still the most efficient striker taking just 140 mins to score a goal or a goal every 1.55 games.
Attacking efficiency is detailed in the visualisation below showing how efficient Notts have been in front of goal at home in the league this season. Each marker represents the the number of shots taken and the number of shots needed to score a goal.
The stats for the Chesterfield game would suggest that Notts were often a threat to the opposition goal.
Defensive resilience has been a feature of Notts home performances this season (Barrow excepted) and none more so than yesterday versus Chesterfield who were themselves a threat to the Notts goal. However some resolute defending, especially from those horrible long throw in's ensured the clean sheet. We should make a special mention for Fitzsimons who put in probably his best ever performance for Notts with a penalty save, a brilliant top corner save and some very intelligent distribution.
A break from league action next week with the FA Trophy game at Yeovil and a chance for key players to recover and hopefully a few others to return from injury. Additionally this game counts as one of Michael Doyle's three match suspension so he only misses one more league game.