Match 36 - Hartlepool (a)

This will be a match that is mourned more for the loss of Callum Roberts than the nature of the defeat.


Ian Burchnall, with the exception of bringing Kyle Wotton back into the starting eleven at the expense of Elisha Sam, kept faith with the team that won at Woking. Unfortunately Hartlepool were clearly a very different proposition and proved good value for their elevated position in the league.

Ian Burchnall was forced into making an early change bringing on Lewis Knight for the unfortunate Regan Griffiths in an attempt to force back the high line faced by the Hartlepool back 3 and in turn hoping to cut out the supply to the wide men which had resulted in way too many crosses being allowed into the Magpies box.


Despite going a goal down on the stroke of half time Notts rallied in the second half and were buoyed by the addition of Callum Roberts and Dion Kelly-Evans on 70 minutes. However anticipation of an equaliser soon turned to despair amongst the Notts ranks as Roberts pulled up again with his recurring abdominal injury resulting in him having to leave the pitch looking visibly distraught.


Down to ten men and with no more subs available Notts continued to press for an equaliser but poor marking from another set piece was to be their undoing once again as Hartlepool put the game to bed with a second goal late on.


Progress updated and I've now removed the Dover game from this visualisation so we have a better indication of projected league position based on the logarithmic trend line.

Results tracker updated now with a line that provides another visualisation for progress throughout the season based on 'win' = 2, 'draw' = 1 and 'loss' = -1.

Points needed now with adjusted targets to represent predicted points totals for the current season. Following the defeat at Hartlepool Notts are now projected to finish between 3rd and 7th place. You can filter the chart by clicking on the legends at the top.

League segment chart updated. Grey bar shows total points available for that segment. Green bar shows total points gained and yellow bar the PPG for that segment.


The defeat at Dover is still included in this visual (matches 1-6). No points yet for the first game in this 6 game segment.

Points by time segment. How many points would have been accumulated if games had finished at 15, 30, 45, 60, 75 and 90 minutes.


The pattern continues to confirm the current trend of Notts performing poorly in the first half of games. If games finished at half time Notts would have secured 12 points less than they actually have.

Onto player stats now and remember you can use the search function to see individual players or click on a column heading to sort highest to lowest etc.


Minutes played updated:

Goal contribution table updated. Again, you can find this on the website and sort columns etc.


Goal participation by minute detailing player goal contribution efficiency.

Goals scatter chart updated. Starting to see a few more dots outside the box.

Goals by time segment updated.


xG now and despite the bombardment faced from Hartlepool's flanks in the first half and the chances created, actual attempts on goal were surprisingly limited.


There was an opportunity against the run of play for Notts to take the league on 35 minutes when Kyle Wootton headed narrowly over from Regan Griffiths' cross which could have changed the whole dynamic of the game.

Breakdown below of the key xG stats and despite the final score line Notts' improved second half meant the game was actually much tighter than result would suggest.

Player xG stats below and the Wootton chance in the first half was the biggest opportunity.

Ian Burchnall's record updated.


Preview | Solihull Moors (a) | Vanarama National League | 19:00

Tuesday 13th April 2021 | Damson Park


Time for Ian Burchnall's men to pick themselves up, dust themselves down and forget the nightmare that was Hartlepool away.


We now know that it will be a minor miracle if Callum Roberts kicks a ball in anger again before the end of this season so time to plan without him.


Typically Notts make the short trip to the West Midlands on Tuesday evening to face a team that has seen a turnaround in fortunes over recent games.


A poor run of results saw Solihull drop out of play off contention and ultimately saw the end of manager James Shan, only to be replaced by former manager Mark Yates who has overseen a run of four games without conceding a goal and last time out managed to grind a 0-0 draw out of then league leaders Sutton Utd.


Recent form radar for Notts and Solihull with both teams having identical form over the last 6 games.

Goals for/against by time segment for Solihull.

xG for Solihull suggests when they have created chances they have usually been quite effective until match 21 where actual goals suddenly took a hit whilst performances remained pretty much the same. This falls in line with the poor run that saw Shan lose the managers job.


The uptick in the last 4 games in both xG and aG identifies the turnaround brought about by Mark Yates.

The expected points (xPTS) for Solihull again shows where their bad spell started and how actual points (aPTS) drops below xPTS for the first time in the season. You can then see how they have started to turn things around again.

Season xG and xPTS for Notts updated and not much change other than a levelling off a little of actual goals with none being scored.

The defeat sees xPTS close the gap slightly on aPTS. What we really need to see is both showing more of an upward trajectory.


Bookies have Solihull as clear favourites and your looking at circa 19/20 for the home win. You can expect to get 13/5 on a Magpies win and a generous 13/5 for the draw.


Based on these odds Solihull have a 51% chance of winning and Notts a 28% chance of taking home the three points.


Hopefully we will see a reaction from the players following the defeat at Hartlepool. Notts have 36 points available to them, another 16 points should be enough to secure a play off spot but if a top 3 finish is to be achieved then a minimum of 25 points from the remaining games would be needed meaning Notts can only afford to drop another 8 or 9 points in these final 12 matches.


Finally a couple of quick messages . . .


Firstly to Cal Roberts, keep your head up, everyone is rooting for you and willing you a quick recovery.


Secondly, Ian and Mo, ignore the trolls, they're not worth it, but please, please stop playing Enzio at RWB. He's the most creative player this club currently has available to them, play him more advanced and see what a difference it makes.


COYP!

Richard