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Match 37 - Aldershot Town (h)

Notts County 3 - 1 Aldershot

Roberts 35' Tanner 17'

Dennis 59', 67'


9 Points in a week for Neal Ardley's men who rode their luck a little but proved too strong in the end for a young Aldershot side.


Looking at the match stats Notts came out well on top and remarkably Aldershot failed to register a single corner. If anyone thinks otherwise please let me know because I can't remember them having one.



Notts' PPG has increased to 1.62 and now sees a season total prediction of just under 75 points which is the target I had set to guarantee a play off place, however, I have now removed this from the chart as it is looking like another 6 or 7 points should guarantee a play off spot. Of course now it is all about a top 3 finish.


Points needed for third place remains 75 points and Barrow are still predicted to finish first with their points forecast of 87 points.



I've decided to take another look at the league progress chart. The average line that was originally being used has been removed because it doesn't really tell us much now. Instead I have added a line that calculates the predicted path and how that might impact on final league position.


The first chart below shows this taking into consideration league position after each of the 37 games played so far. You can see that the predicted progress arc is showng a possible 5th or 6th place finish.


In the two charts below I have done the same calculation but based on the first 10 games and the last 10 games.


The first 10 games suggest we would have been looking at a mid table finish if that form had continued, however the last 10 games suggests a top 4 finish.



We have now seen 19 league games at Meadow Lane this seson.


Notts have accrued 35 points at home following the win over Aldershot with a PPG of 1.84 and a very healthy +16 GD.


Season stats after this weekend's matches vs the NL average.

Goals scored/conceded by time segment. The table below suggests Notts are still good value for a goal in the second half of a game.

Moving onto player stats and minutes played all competitions for the season. Minutes on the pitch are now being spread around as Neal Ardley continues to utilise his squad rotation.


Minutes per goal involvement updated following the Aldershot win.

Kyle Wooton continues to lead the goals + assists table with 16 goals and 4 assists in all competitions but Kristian Dennis is now hot on his tail. Also an assist for Joe McDonnell sees a goalkeeper on the goal involvement charts for the first time this season.


Kristian Dennis remains the most efficient striker of those scoring 2 or more goals taking 128 mins to score a goal or a goal every 1.42 games.

Notts showed their experience and strength in depth in the win over Aldershot coming into the game more as it progressed and tactical substitutions again making a difference. With 17 attempts on goal this matched the previous most attacking display in the league at home against Dagenham. The only other time Notts have had more attempts was against Aveley where they managed 23 shots on goal.


Attacking efficiency (home)

Notts currently manage to score roughly every 6.5 attempts on goal at home.

Defensive resilience (home)

Notts concede a goal roughly every 11.5 attempts against at home. This suggest they still invite a degree of pressure from the opposition but remain resilient under that threat.

Moving on to our regular look at how the table could pan out over the remaining games and things continue to look good for Notts, additionally it is starting to look like the chances of a play off play for the likes of Bromley and Woking are becoming less likely.


For Notts a move up to 3rd in the league is great but as it stands the best they could achieve based on form would be 2nd place, unless of course Barrow go on a terrible run for the last few games. The pressure is on now for Notts and although it looks likely they will definitely finish in a play off spot clinging on to a top 3 finish won't be without it's challenges.


Of the current top 7 Yeovil look the most likely to fall out of the top 3 race and Solihull likely to struggle to hold onto a play off spot. Harrogate, Notts, Boreham Wood and Halifax still looking like they will have strong finishes.


If we were to consider last 10 game form and goal difference and factor that into the current league table then Notts would finish in 4th place on goal difference with 78 points.


Surprisingly Harrogate would win the league by 1 point from Barrow and Hartlepool would take the last play off place with 72 points.


Harrogate 89

Barrow 88

Boreham Wood 79

Notts Co 78

Halifax 78

Yeovil 72

Hartlepool 72

Barnet 70

Woking 69

Dover 67

Stockport 66

Solihull 65

Bromley 57


Finally, I thought I would keep Neal Ardley's stats in the updates as I know there are some that like to keep an eye on this.


After the Aldershot win he now has an overall win % at Notts of 39.44% and a league win % for the season so far of 43.24%

So on to Saturday and Eastliegh at home who beat us 1-0 at their place first game of the season. Preview to follow.


As always thanks for reading, COYP!

Richard.

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