Player Ratings Explained

After the Dover report I have been asked a number of questions relating to the player ratings I included in that article.


With this in mind I thought I would try and provide an explanation as to how these ratings are calculated.


Before we get started it's important to understand that due to analytical restraints and limited data the assignment of ratings for individual players on a game by game basis should not be seen as an indication of that particular players ability as a footballer but more to offer a yardstick with which to measure each players game contribution compared to the next.


The only metrics we can safely measure are those that relate to actual gameplay events such as goals, assists, penalties, cautions and minutes played etc. What we are unable to measure at this time is additional data like distance covered, tackles made, headers won etc.


This is actually a good thing because we are measuring how players contribute to team achievements/failures and not individual skills which then become subjective. For example if a defender makes 20 tackles in a game does that make him a better defender than his team mate who only made 10 tackles?


You could argue if a defender has had to make a tackle is that because he gave his opponent too much space in the first place, or was he out of position, maybe the other defender is more efficient in his marking and closing down which would in turn suggest the less tackles he makes the better defender he is.


It's important therefore to score players in a less subjective manner and deal only with the elements of the game that offer definitive metrics.


For this season I have decided to have a two factor scoring method for the ratings.


The first method is very straight forward and uses the point scoring you will be familiar with if you have a fantasy football team. This is a great way to award points to players for their direct contribution to gameplay events.


Points will be awarded after each game as follows;


These scores provide players with points relevant to their general contribution during a game.


Points are awarded assuming the basic expectation of a player in any given position in the team.


Again this is not an exact science and it's fair to say if you're an effective goal contributing defender you could do pretty well out of it, but then you could say they've deserved it.




The second part of the equation is harder to explain but I'll do my best.


For those of you familiar with my stats you will know I put an emphasis on player minutes more than appearances.


The reason for this is it helps to drill down on each players efficiency, contribution and influence when we considers things like goals scored, goal assists and goals conceded.


For example last season Kyle Wootton topped the scoring charts with 18 goals in all competitions scoring a goal every 194 minutes or every 2.15 games.


Kristian Dennis on the other hand scored two goals less than Wootton but played fewer minutes meaning he scored a goal every 125 minutes or every 1.39 games. This means that Dennis was effectively the most efficient striker at the club last season.


The same principle can be applied to every position and using a weighted minutes formula (WMF) that calculates a player's efficiency based on minutes played rather than appearances is a much more accurate way of monitoring gameplay contribution.


The "fantasy" points are added to the WMF to give the final match rating.


Formula

"Fantasy points" + "WMF" = Rating


So for the game at Dover the 1-0 defeat meant the scoring was particularly low with anyone who played the full 90 mins scoring 2.75 pts, with the exception of Jake Reeves who's rating was slightly lower due to picking up a yellow card.


These points will be added after every game to provide a live ratings table, however at key milestones within the season I will publish the ratings based on just the WMF and we will be able to see how the two tables compare.


Hopefully this now makes a little more sense and fingers crossed the Altrincham game provides the Notts players with an opportunity to get some much needed goal contribution points on the board!


Richard

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