Preview - Aldershot Town (a)


The defeat at home to Maidenhead seems a distant memory as we look forward to a first competitive match for Notts in three weeks with a trip to face Aldershot Town in deepest Hampshire.


Fitness will be a concern for the Magpies with players previously testing positive for Covid-19 now returning to the squad short of any sustained training and we wait to see just how much of an impact the virus can have on a players recovery.


As far as I am aware at this stage there are no positive tests to report for the Shots who will be keen to get their first home points on the board and their first win at the Recreation Ground since beating Boreham Wood back in February.

Aldershot currently occupy 21st spot with 4 points from 5 games. Maybe the strangest stat is the 5-0 away win they managed to secure at Dover and they haven't been lacking in creating chances.

Aldershot's record so far:

P 5 | W 1 | D 1 | L 3 | GF 10 | GA 10 | GD 0 | PTS 4 | PPG 0.80


Notts record so far:

P 5 | W 3 | D 0 | L 2 | GF 10 | GA 7 | GD +3 | PTS 9 | PPG 1.80


Looking at the h2h and including games played against both Aldershot and Aldershot Town Notts have had the better of it over the years unbeaten in 34 of the 45 games played between the clubs.


Goals by time segment for Aldershot:

Goal time segments for Notts:


Moving on to current xG and aG (expected and actual goals) and there's actually not much to choose between the two clubs.


xG Aldershot Town = 1.70

aG Aldershot Town = 2.00


xG Notts Co = 1.90

aG Notts Co = 2.00


The following chart is a new one and looks at lead time status, essentially the average time each club spends leading, level or trailing in a game. This represents the total minutes played divided by the number of games played. For example Notts average lead per game is 39.20 minutes which is a total of 164.50 minutes divided by 5 games.


As it's FA Cup first round week and due to Notts being penalised for their integrity in forfeiting the last round our game with Aldershot is one of just two games in the National League this weekend.


This means whatever the result neither team can drop lower in the league but could see massive gains with a comprehensive win.


Another new chart below shows possible league position probability. The darker green areas are essentially hotspots and represent the most likely position based on probability of results.

A draw could see Notts move up to 6th and a win by two or more goals would see a climb to 3rd on goals scored.


A win for Aldershot by two clear goals would see a jump to 11th just one place behind Notts, however a draw sees no improvement for them in league position.


Running the form algorithm the most likely score by a very small percentage is a 2-1 win for Notts, however there is very little to choose between that result and a score draw.


Of course we should be cautious when considering form stats as the current situation is nothing if not unpredictable.


Bookies currently have Notts favourites but with odds drifting a little and you will have to lump on a fair few pounds to get better than evens for a Notts win.


Aldershot's odds are shortening and currently look reasonable value at 5/2 for the win.


Based on these odds Notts have a 53% chance of winning and Aldershot 27%.


Basically every game this season has become a bit of a lottery. Hopefully we can get to see a sustained run of games so teams start to show their real form and it will be interesting to see if Torquay's great start to the season can be maintained.


COYP!

Richard


Note:

Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.