Preview - Barnet (h)


Barnet are the visitors to Meadow Lane on Saturday and they will be desperate to make amends for the play off semi final defeat back in August.


The Bees had a nightmare start to the new season losing heavily (5-1) at home to Eastleigh prompting manager Peter Beadle to declare publicly that he wanted a response in the following match away at one of the promotion favourites Dagenham & Redbridge.


He got his wish with an impressive victory setting up what should be an interesting encounter on Saturday in Nottingham.


Barnet were unable to keep hold of striker Paul McCallum from last season but have brought in JJ Hooper up front from Wrexham.


Former Magpie Scott Loach is likely to start in goal but the most intriguing signing for Barnet is that of ex QPR winger Michael Petrasso (pictured). The Canadian impressed in a short loan spell at Notts back in 2014 and has recently been plying his trade back in his native Canada where he has also made 9 international appearances.



Notts and Barnet have met 21 times over the years with Notts winning 11 of those encounters, Barnet have won 7 and there have been 3 draws.


Notts will be keen to build on Wednesday nights victory over Altrincham and it's difficult to see Neal Ardley changing much assuming everyone is fit. That said with the comments he has made this week around Enzio Boldewijn (pictured) it will be interesting to see if the Flying Dutchman is now any closer to getting his first start of the season.

Notts have had plenty of goal scoring opportunities over the opening two games of the season needing 27 attempts to score 3 goals. At this rate they would need 9 shots for every goal meaning their scoring efficiency is currently a little below average.


I am monitoring where the goals are coming from for Notts and where possible I will try to collate the same stats for goal attempts. This will assist in compiling some accurate xG data and I hope to have a visual for this some time after Saturdays game.


In defence Notts have faced a total of 16 goal attempts conceding just two meaning opponents will average 8 goal attempts for every goal scored.


By comparison Barnet are a little more efficient in front of goal and have managed to score every 5.3 attempts.


However their 5-1 opening day mauling means their defensive efficiency has taken a bit of a battering conceding a goal every 3.2 attempts which would suggest they have a few defensive frailties that Notts might be able to capitalise on.


Notts are odds on favourites at the bookies where you will be lucky to get better than 4/6 on for the win. You're looking at 14/5 for the draw and 4/1 for a Barnet win.


I've run the numbers through the algorithm (maybe we should give him/her a name like those Lotto machines?) and it shows Notts have a 57% chance of winning, Barnet 18% and 25% chance of a draw.


Score prediction time and based on the last 6 games and considering both home and away results the most likely score is . . . Notts Co 2 - 0 Barnet.


To conclude Barnet will have regained some confidence after the victory away at Dagenham. Add to that the boost given by the additions of Michael Petrasso and JJ Hooper the Notts full backs will have some work to do.


Notts will be looking to continue on the front foot and really need to try and avoid the slow start we saw against Altrincham and if they can get an early goal it's hard to see past a Notts win.


COYP!

Richard


Note:

Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.

100 views