Preview - Boreham Wood (h)

No let up on the fixture front as Notts prepare for their 3rd of 8 games scheduled in December.


Boreham Wood are the visitors to Meadow Lane and will be hoping to put a dent in the Magpies current unbeaten run of 5 games.

Boreham Wood despite currently sitting 17th in the league actually have the second best defence so far conceding just 8 goals in their 10 games played, but equally have only scored 9.


Home advantage should again be key for Notts with only league leaders Torquay having a better home record so far this season, and the Woods away form, like Notts has been pretty much mid tableish.


Boreham Wood record so far:

Notts record so far:


Goals by time segment for Boreham Wood:

Goal time segments for Notts:


Where Notts are making a habit of scoring early or late in games Boreham Wood appear to be at their most dangerous just before half time.


Boreham Wood are averaging 0.90 goals per game and average 11.80 goal attempts per game meaning they need on average 13.11 attempts per goal.


Notts are averaging 1.63 goals per game and average 11.91 goal attempts per game meaning they average a goal every 7.30 attempts. This would suggest both Notts and Boreham Wood have a similar attacking threat but Boreham Wood are less effective or wasteful in front of goal.


Boreham Wood are conceding an average of 0.80 goals per game compared to Notts who concede 1.00 goals per game on average.


Boreham Wood have an average xG of 1.27 goals for the season so far which is higher than their actual goals (aG) of 0.90. Again this would suggest they are capable of creating chances but don't convert as many as their xG would suggest they should.


Notts average xG for the season so far is 1.41 with their aG currently at 1.63 which would suggest that they score fractionally more goals than expected, despite missing a couple of penalties and a few big chances.


Boreham Wood have 12 points from their 10 games so far so a PPG of 1.200. This is lower than their expected points (xPts) so far of 1.665 which is another indication that they have been performing better than results suggest.


Notts PPG so far is 1.810. This compares to an xPts total of 1.841 which would indicate that performances have been pretty much on a par with expected results.


Looking at the 'x' ratings as a whole Boreham Wood have not scored the goals or collected the points their performances probably deserve whereas Notts are neither under or over achieving.


Lead status:

Notts continue to maintain an impressive trailing average of just 4.80 minutes per match.


A win for Notts will mean they stay in 3rd place, a defeat should still see them in the top 7.


Notts again seen as favourites at the bookies with the best odds currently 11/10 for the win and 12/5 for a Boreham Wood win.


This equates to a 48% chance of winning for Notts and 29% chance of winning for the visitors.


Based on the data and with home advantage you can't help but fancy Notts to extend their current unbeaten run to 6 games. Add to that the Magpies defence hasn't been breached now for 282 minutes Boreham Wood will have to be at their best in front of goal to get anything out of this game. That said they come to Meadow Lane on the back of an impressive 2-1 win away at Hartlepool at the weekend and will no doubt be looking to cause an upset. Don't be surprised to see another 90 minutes very much like the Woking game.


COYP!

Richard


Note:

Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.


xG and xPts data courtesy xgstats.com

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