So this is it, it all comes down to this, well nearly anyway. An away trip to Bromley, a point needed to guarantee a play off home tie in the first eliminator, and against a team that will have play off aspirations of their own.
Before we continue with the Bromley preview I thought I might just updated the xPTS vs aPTS visual I posted a while back.
Here's a reminder . . .
I posted the above chart a few games after Ian Burchnall was named Head Coach and it showed the xPTS and aPTS for the whole of Notts' time in the National League to date.
It was interesting to see that Notts' general performances based on xPTS were beginning to drop but somehow aPTS remained reasonably stable. As previously discussed this highlighted the concern that this might not be sustainable and unfortunately that's what happened as results began to worsen.
I've updated the chart (below) to take into consideration just this season and it allows us to take a closer look at Ian Burchnall's short but eventful time with the club so far.
As we can see Ian Burchnall joined Notts just as results were starting to dip and despite a terrible start to his new job, which included a 6 game stretch without a win in the league starting with the defeat at Hartlepool, performances were actually improving.
i) Notts weren't getting the results they deserved.
ii) A decent run of results would be expected at some point.
As it happens that good run of results came at just the right time starting with the away draw at Torquay, although even that game should have been a Notts win.
What's really pleasing is that the Weymouth win saw both xPTS and aPTS come together whilst continuing on a healthy upward trajectory. Let's hope that's a sign of things to come.
Anyway, back to the preview and Bromley will need a win to stand any chance of securing a play off place, which should work to Notts' advantage in what promises to be an open attacking game of football.
A look at the recent form radar shows Notts are currently top of the recent form table and hopefully hitting their stride at just the right time. Both clubs have identical attack stats but Notts' defensive form is much better. Additionally Bromley have been much better on the road than they have at home.
Goals by time segment for Bromley suggests they score more goals in the last 15 minutes of each half.
Notts' goal segment.
Lead status for both clubs and very little to separate them.
The honours were shared a couple of weeks ago at Meadow Lane with Bromley spoiling the party with a late equaliser. To be honest another 2-2 draw would be just the ticket for Notts but probably not very good for the nerves!
The bookies currently have Bromley as favourites at evens whilst if you're quick you might get circa 12/5 on an away win for Notts and similar odds for the draw which is tempting.
Whatever happens Notts will definitely be involved in the play off's but with 5 teams all fighting for the final 2 places it's still a lottery as to who we will face. Securing the point to ensure a home tie is paramount as the thought of having to play away at say Wrexham or Chesterfield in front of their fans doesn't really bare thinking about!
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