Preview | Bromley (h)
A game that was rescheduled from earlier in the season, our match preview looks a lot different to the one we prepared for the initial date. Not only have Notts now won 7 on the bounce, but our visitors Bromley have lost 3 league games on the spin, and are winless in 5.
This poor form has seen them drop out of the playoffs, a period in which they have scored just 6 goals; by contrast Notts have scored 17. So it’s easy to see why Notts are heavy favourites with the bookmakers for this one.
Nevertheless Ravens boss Andy Woodman is a manager with a highly regarded CV having previously coached in the Premier League and EFL and despite recent results you can be sure he will have his players well drilled for this encounter.
His Bromley team are a very physical side, one which Notts have come unstuck against before; you have to go back to January 2020 for the last time Notts beat Bromley. It’s understandable then that many Notts fans are approaching this one with caution, but with the form the Magpies find themselves in confidence will be high around Meadow Lane.
Notts have been handed a big boost though, as key defender Omar Sowunmi misses out due to a suspension he picked up in a post match incident against Chesterfield. Sowunmi has been Bromley’s most important player this season; he played in each of their 7 wins, and in the 3 games where he hasn’t played Bromley have lost all 3. He’s also chipped in with 4 goals, making him their 2nd top scorer, so overall he will be a massive miss on Tuesday night.
As mentioned earlier Bromley find themselves in a poor run of form having lost their last 4 games on the trot, a run of defeats that also saw them lose out at home to Hereford United in the FA Cup.
Notts by contrast will be looking to make it 8 league wins on the bounce and to continue to tighten their grip on top spot over second placed Wrexham.
Playing style rankings confirm what we already know about Bromley's physical abilities with them scoring highly in the pressing stats. They are also not afraid to keep hold of the ball with better than average passing and possession stats and score highly when it comes to territory and finding themselves in the final third.
Bromley’s most creative player is wing back Harry Forster, who has played 16 key passes this season, more than any other player.
The former Watford graduate will be a constant threat down the right hand side and will keep Chicksen busy, constantly looking to put a clever ball into the box.
The 22 year old is full of energy, and he plays 4.23 crosses per 90, 16th most in the league.
He’s sure to be a threat going forward, and defensively he has been decent too. He’s won 58.57% of his defensive duels, which for a wing back is pretty impressive; Chicksen has won just 57.75% of his for example.
There aren’t many more well rounded midfielders in the league than 22 year old James Vennings, a man who will give Palmer a real battle on Tuesday night.
The former loanee signed a permanent contract at Hayes Lane after being released by Charlton Athletic.
A player who picks up similar positions to Palmer, Vennings plays 39 passes per 90, 87.89% of which are accurate. He’s the 16th most accurate passer in the league, showing the quality he possesses with the ball, but he is equally important out of possession too.
Vennings wins 66.67% of his defensive duels, 11.11% more than Matty Palmer. Clearly Vennings will be combative on Tuesday night, and give Palmer very tough night in midfield. Absolutely crucial to any success Bromley will have.
8 goals in 10 games, Adam Marriott has shown he is one of the best finishers at this level, continuing the fine form he showed at Barnet last season, where he netted 17 goals.
It seemed to take Woodman a while to trust Marriott to start, but once he had his faith has been more than repaid, with 4 braces firing him towards the top of the scoring charts.
A player with clever movement, Notts defenders must keep a close eye on him, as if he is allowed to shoot it usually results in a goal.
Marriott has only taken 22 shots this season, meaning he scores with 36.36% of his shots, an incredibly high conversion rate. Even more impressive is his shot accuracy; he currently tops the charts, hitting the target with 68.18% of his shots. By contrast, Langstaff hits the target with just 54.69% of his shots, showing how impressive Marriott has been.
Andy Woodman is a manager very comfortable with a back three favouring a 3-4-1-2 formation which will often transition into a 3-5-2/5-3-2 depending on the phases of play. However, with the absence of the suspended Sowunmi Woodman might go for a back 4 which is what he did in the defeat at Maidenhead on Saturday.
You can expect to see the Bromley front 2 try to squeeze the defence with a high press when out of possession and will drop into a low block when defending in the final third which could make it difficult for Notts to unlock the Bromley rear guard.
Bromley are also capable of breaking fast, capitalising on any turnover of ball and Notts will have to be sure to be wary of this. We saw against Torquay how their left wingback Da Silva had the beating of Aaron Nemane and was able to make the most of the space in behind the Notts right flanker when the ball was lost in an advanced area.
One Bromley tactic we are all familiar with now is the use of the long throw from Chris Bush who has started the last two games in Sowunmi's absence.
Bromley have scored 23 goals so far this season averaging 1.44 goals per game and an xG per game of 1.77 meaning they are underperforming slightly in front of goal.
At the other end of the pitch they are conceding 1.25 goals per game with an xCG of 1.21 per game. This would suggest that they are conceding goals at an expected level based on the shot values faced.
Bromley's away form isn't great with 5 losses and just 1 win, however, that single away win was a commendable 2-0 victory at Boreham Wood and is currently their last win of the season so far.
Torquay Away Form:
P 8 | W 1 | D 2 | L 5 | F 11 | A 15 | GD -4 | PTS 5
Notts remain unbeaten in the league at Meadow Lane with 7 wins and a draw from 8 games, scoring 19 and conceding just 3 goals. This means The Magpies are averaging just under 2.4 goals per game at home and conceding an average of just 0.37 per game.
Macaulay Langstaff - 17 (xG 13.81)
Andy Marriott - 8 (xG 4.58)
Notts again the bookies favourites with 53/100 the best you'll currently find for a home win with Bet365.
Boyle Sport are offering a tempting 11/2 for a Bromley win and you'll get 7/2 for the draw with STS.
Based on this Notts are seen to have a 65% chance of winning.
If the Torquay game seemed an absolute banker then Bromley offer a much more challenging prospect. Despite recent results they still remain in 8th place in the league, just outside the play-off places.
They have a number of threats going forward and if Notts are to keep those threats at bay they will need to be disciplined in defending the spaces in behind the wing backs and be vigilant from set pieces.
Full stats report to follow after the game.
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