Preview - Chesterfield (h)
The Spireites visit Meadow Lane this weekend with the spectre of their last gasp added time home defeat seated firmly in their minds in what should be an enthralling return encounter.
Don't take any notice of Chesterfield's current league position, after a rocky start just one defeat in their last 9 games in the league suggests they are in good form.
Before we get into the match preview here's the xG report from the win at Kings Lynn.
Surprisingly in a game with 20 odd attempts on goal between the two sides the xG ratings were particularly low.
The Linnets had chances to go a couple of goals clear in the first half and Kyle Wootton missed a couple of decent chances in the latter stages but it was a goal out of nowhere that secured the win and with an xG rating of just 0.02 suggesting Jake Reeves goal had a one in fifty chance of going in.
Breakdown of the games chances below includes time of chance and xG rating. Kyle Wootton with the two good chances late on.
Back onto the Chessie game now and first a quick look at the head 2 head stats followed by the recent form radar.
Goals by time segment for Chesterfield and it appears they do tend to come on strong at the end of each half.
Notts' goal segment continues to highlight just how resilient the defence has been this season.
The following visuals look at expected points (xPTS) for both clubs vs actual points gained (aPTS) which allows us to look at overall performance for the season so far.
Looking at the above chart it seems Chesterfield have been under performing slightly compared to their expected points where they are currently 3.21 points behind expectations.
This would point to them being a bit more threatening than their current points tally would suggest. This is further confirmed by the fact that all of their defeats in the league have been by just a single goal margin and maybe they didn't deserve to lose some of those games. I think one game in particular comes to mind!
By contrast Notts have pretty much achieved what was expected for most of this season. However, the last few games has seen the Magpies out performing expectations and have accumulated 6.24 points more than expected. This might look great on paper but in fact it can highlight a trend of unsustainability.
The wins at Kings Lynn and Weymouth were underwhelming to say the least and could easily have gone either way if not for unexpected goals and some good keeping. The Dagenham game aside and contrary to common belief results where a team knicks the win despite not playing particularly well are not always a good sign. If performance levels don't improve coupled with the odd injury or suspension you can quite rapidly be staring down the barrel of a bad run.
I hate to sound like a stuck record but as I suggested a while ago, based on Torquay's xPTS they were massively over achieving and their form was unsustainable and they have now dropped to 18th in the last 6 form table.
Notts' recent form is starting to mimic that of Torquay's so it is important Notts make more of the chances they are creating to avoid falling into the same trap.
Chesterfield are averaging 1.67 goals per game and average 11.05 goal attempts per 90 minutes meaning they score on average every 6.88 attempts per goal suggesting they are pretty efficient in front of goal.
Notts are averaging 1.37 goals per game and average 11.84 goal attempts per 90 minutes meaning they average a goal every 7.09 attempts.
The Spirites are conceding 1.28 goals per game on average compared to Notts who are conceding just 0.74 goals per game.
Notts are averaging 52.97% possession per game compared to Chesterfield who average a bit less at 47.05% per game.
Lead status for both clubs is quite close.
A win for Notts could see a move up to second place in the unlikely event that Sutton don't win at Wealdstone. defeat could see a drop to sixth.
Again Notts appear to be favourites with the best odds for a home win currently circa 19/20, you can get 13/5 for the away win and 12/5 for the draw.
Based on these odds Notts would expect to have a 51% chance of winning, Chesterfield with a 28% chance of the win.
I don't think this is going to be a game for the faint hearted and Notts are going to have to be at their very best to see off a Chesterfield side in good form and obviously growing in confidence.
Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.