Preview - Dagenham & Redbridge (a)

A trip to Essex on Wednesday night for Saturday's marauding Magpies and a chance to extend the unbeaten run to 4 games, which will stand them in good stead before two home games in quick succession.

Dagenham were well backed and amongst the favourites to do well this season after some decent looking signings which included experienced target man Paul McCallum. However the Daggers have not had the start they would have hoped for and currently sit 18th in the league having scored just 5 goals in 8 games.


Dagenham record so far:

P 8 | W 2 | D 2 | L 4 | GF 5 | GA 9 | GD -4 | PTS 8 | PPG 1.00


Notts record so far:

P 9 | W 5 | D 1 | L 3 | GF 17 | GA 11 | GD +6 | PTS 16 | PPG 1.77


Goals by time segment for Dagenham:

Goal time segments for Notts:


xG and aG for both clubs listed below based on last 6 games. Dagenham have averaged a goal every 11.25 attempts and average 10.17 attempts per game averaging a goal every 1.5 games or every 135 mins. This means their xG rating for this game will be pretty low.


xG Dagenham = 0.07

aG Dagenham = 0.67


By contrast Notts have averaged a goal every 7.10 attempts averaging 11.83 goal attempts per game and scoring a goal every 81 minutes.


xG Notts Co = 0.17

aG Notts Co = 1.67


This means that Dagenham will be expected to score after 14 attempts on goal whereas Notts will be expected to score after just under 6 goal attempts.


In the last 6 games Dagenham have faced more attempts per game than Notts but their opponents have needed more chances to score against them than those teams that have faced Notts which would suggest that despite being ineffective up front Dagenham are more resilient in defence than Notts.


Dagenham have managed to keep it quite tight in the early stages of a game conceding just once in the first 30 mins so far this season. Again by contrast Notts like to start well scoring 11 times in the first 30 mins of a game.


Lead status:

Notts have held the lead for just over 40 minutes on average in all games played so far this season with Dagenham managing to lead for just over 15 mins on average,


There are 8 matches being played on Tuesday night so difficult to assess possible league placing until those games have been completed but a win for Notts should at least see them maintain a place in the top 7.


I seem to be writing the same thing every preview but the bookies again have Notts as firm favourites with the best odds on a Notts win currently 9/10 against. You can get 11/4 on a win for the hosts and 12/5 for the draw.


These odds convert to Notts having a 53% chance of winning and Dagenham a 27% chance of victory.


With games coming thick and fast and the injury to Cal Roberts looking like it might need longer to heal than hoped Notts have strengthened the squad with loan signing Tom Walker form Harrogate Town.


Following the success of the 4-2-3-1 formation that did so well on Saturday you can't help but think Neal Ardley will look to consolidate on the road and so fully expect to see a change back to a more traditional 4-3-3 formation and a slight change in personnel as well.


Hopefully Notts approach the game in confident manner intent on coming back with 3 points but with two very winnable home games in quick succession after this one, a draw might not be such a bad result.


COYP!

Richard


Note:

Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.

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