Preview - Hartlepool United (h)

No game at Kings Lynn on Boxing Day so we look forward to another home encounter, a resurgent Hartlepool United the visitors.


Notts would have been hoping to cement their top 3 position with a result in Norfolk but instead will be facing a Hartlepool side who have just leapfrogged them in the league following convincing wins against Stockport and Halifax.

Pools currently sit 3rd in the league, just 1 point ahead of Notts but having played 2 games more and with a lower GD and PPG.


Current league table:


Notts and Hartlepool have previously met on 35 ocassions with Hartlepool having the better of the two encounters last season, drawing at Meadow Lane and winning 2-0 in the last meeting between the clubs at Victoria Park.



Goals by time segment for Hartlepool:

Goal time segments for Notts:


Hartlepool are averaging 1.47 goals per game and average 11.27 goal attempts per game meaning they score on average every 7.68 attempts per goal.


Notts are averaging 1.46 goals per game and average 13.62 goal attempts per game meaning they average a goal every 9.32 attempts. This would suggest both Notts and Hartlepool have a similar attacking threat but Hartlepool have been slightly more efficient in front of goal.


Pools are conceding an average of 1.20 goals per game compared to Notts who concede just 0.92 goals per game on average suggesting Notts are more resilient in defence.


I'm not in receipt of the latest xG and xPTS for Hartlepool yet but based on previous figures and factoring in 7 goals for and 1 goal against in the last two games their xG for all goals scored has jumped up to circa 21.50 compared to an actual goals scored of 22. Prior to those last two games their aG was much lower than their xG so maybe they are now starting to convert the chances they were missing in previous games.


Pools xPTS will be circa 26 which is higher than their actual points of 24. Again this would suggest that not converting chances in earlier games has cost them points.


Lead status:

Notts continue to maintain an impressive trailing average of just 5.50 minutes per game.


A win for Notts could mean a move up to 2nd place on goal difference, but with Sutton at home to Dover maybe reclaiming 3rd place is more likely. A defeat would se a few places dropped but still hanging on to a play off spot.


Bookies again have Notts as favourites offering circa 11/10 for the home win. Hartlepool offer better odds at circa 12/5 which you can also get for the draw.


This equates to a 48% chance of winning for Notts and 29% chance of winning for the visitors.


Notts should be the fresher of the two sides following the Kings Lynn postponement but Hartlepool will be desperate to continue the good form they have found in the last couple of games, however, their free scoring attackers will be up against a resilient Notts defence that boasts 5 clean sheets in the last 6 outings.


COYP!

Richard


Note:

Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.

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