Preview - Solihull Moors (h)
Two of the leagues stingiest clubs come face to face in a rapidly rearranged match at Meadow Lane.
With the game originally due to be played at Solihull's Damson's Park, fears over the condition of the pitch following heavy snowfall in the West Midands resulted in the clubs agreeing to reverse the fixture meaning an encounter in Nottingham and what will be the 6th home league game in a row for the Magpies.
Before we get into the Solihull analysis I just want to take a quick look back at the xG stats for the Torquay match as the data wasn't available in time for the stats report.
It goes without saying that it was a game of few chances so xG scores are pretty low. That said despite Torquay having more attempts on goal Notts actually posed a greater threat, creating the better chances and coming out with a higher xPTS.
We can see from the above chart that chances were slim pickings for the first 50 minutes or so but things picked up a bit during the latter stages of the game.
Notts had two big chances, in particular Kyle Wootton's effort and we are all wondering how Josh Umerah managed to shoot backwards with what was possibly the best chance in the game for the visitors.
Player chances listed below with a brief description of the type of chance and the xG rating given. Reeves chance is separated from the overal xG as it was part of the same chance as he latched onto a rebound from a blocked Rodrigues effort but I have listed it under multiple so we can still see the individual xG score for that effort.
Back to Solihull now and a look at the current form radar.
Solihull currently sit 7th in the league,1 point ahead Notts with a game in hand. Looking at the radar graph above you can see Solihull are top of the home form table but have not been so good on the road. Based on PPG Solihull would be 3rd in the table and Notts in 6th.
Current league table:
Notts egded it between the two clubs last season, a 0-0 draw at Meadow Lane and a Wes Thomas goal at Solihull handing the win to Notts.
Goals by time segment for Solihull and it's interesting to see that they are yet to score or concede in the first 15 minutes of any league game which would suggest they start slowly and cautiously.
Goal time segments for Notts and if they are to have any impact on this game then getting back to the fast starts we saw in earlier games is likely to be the best tactic against a team that obviously starts slowly.
They are averaging 1.42 goals per game and average 10.36 goal attempts per game meaning they score on average every 7.29 attempts per goal.
Notts are averaging 1.27 goals per game and average 12.53 goal attempts per game meaning they average a goal every 9.87 attempts. This would suggest that Notts generally create more chances than Solihull per game but Solihull are slightly more effective in front of goal.
Both clubs are very resilient in defence having conceded just 13 goals each so far in the league. Notts have played one game more so are slightly more resilient conceding just 0.87 goals per game compared to 0.93 for Solihull.
Solihull have scored 20 goals in the league but their xG gives them 13.82 goals. This again further confirms that they have scored more goals than expected.
Additionally Solihull's xPTS for the 14 games so far is 17.82 which is just over 7 points less than their actual points tally of 25. Essentially this would suggest they have been over achieving compared to overall performance.
With 19 goals in 15 games Notts xG is currently 20.28 so have under achieved slightly in front of goal compared to overall performance whic goes to confirm the general observation that it is currently a lack of goals that is letting Notts down.
Lead status and there's very little to separate the teams.
A win for Notts would see them leapfrog Solihull into 7th place and a win by more than one goal would be enough to replace Halifax in 6th on goal difference.
A defeat would see a drop down to 9th if Maidenhead avoid defeat against Yeovil.
Notts appear to be favourites with the bookies at 11/10 for the win whereas you can get 12/5 for both the away win and the draw.
This equates to a 48% chance of winning for Notts and 29% chance of winning for the visitors.
On paper this game has 0-0 written all over it and that would have been my prediction had the game still been played at Solihull, but with Notts now at home and the need to start kicking on with points on the board I fully expect to see a very attack minded display from Neal Ardley's men, creating plenty of chances and maybe, just maybe scraping a 1-0 win.
All joking aside, I'd be happy with that.
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