Preview - Sutton Utd (a)


Notts face a trip down south to Gander Green Lane on a Tuesday night to face a Sutton United team who have had an impressive start to the season with 3 wins out of 3.


It was honours shared last season with the two clubs drawing both games 1-1. The clubs have met just three times previous to that in the FA Cup in 1994, 2008 and 2011 with Notts winning all three encounters.


Sutton Utd v Notts Co H2H

Looking at the club comparisons on the radar chart it's Suttons defence and Notts' away form that seem to stick out but with just 3 games played it is probably too early to draw too many conclusions.

Of the three games played so far Sutton have scored 6 and conceded just 1. By comparison Notts have scored 7 and conceded 4.


Goals by time segment for Sutton:

Goal time segments for Notts:


I have now finalised a model for expected goals (xG) that is relevant to each team based on recent games and a timeline graph showing this will be posted in the post match stats report but in the meantime the current xG for both clubs compared to actual goals per game (aG) is as follows;


xG Sutton Utd = 2.90

aG Sutton Utd = 2.00


xG Notts Co = 3.60

aG Notts Co = 2.33


Sutton have conceded just the one goal so far and as I write this up the stats do start to look a little concerning for Notts fans. That said I think we also need to consider the opposition Sutton have faced and it wouldn't be wrong to suggest that Notts will be their first real challenge of the season with the three teams played previously, which includes early league whipping boys Maidenhead, having just 1 point between them so far.


The other challenge for Notts of course will be the 3G pitch. Notts' record on the plastic for last season was P3, W1, D1, L1.


Sutton should have goal scoring Harry Beautyman pulling the strings in midfield whilst striker Omar Bugiel (pictured) is well known in the National League and the target man got his campaign underway with a goal against Maidenhead in the season opener.

Notts will be looking to keep the momentum going after Saturdays win over Barnet and having made changes for that game Neal Ardley has already suggested changes could be made again with consideration being given to players who might be better suited to the plastic pitch which might see a return to the starting eleven for Alex Lacey (Pictured) and Wes Thomas.


There will also be a question mark over whether or not Enzio Boldewijn did enough against Barnet to convince Ardley he should be starting him on a regular basis.

Despite Sutton's great start and home advantage the bookies seem to have Notts as favourites with odds around 5/4 for a Notts win, 9/5 for a Sutton win and 23/10 for the draw.


Based on those odds Notts are showing a 42% chance of of a win, Sutton 33% and 25% the draw.


Score prediction was a little bit out for the Barnet game and although the score wasn't quite right at 2-0 it does mean the correct result has been predicted for every game so far this season.


With that in mind don't be too upset with this games calculations which suggest the most likely score is . . .


Sutton Utd 2 - 1 Notts County


I should add that the numbers were very close for this game and there wasn't much between the above score prediction and a 1-1 draw. I think that's called hedging my bets!


To conclude Sutton will be high on confidence after a dream start but Notts should provide them with their first real test of the season. If you've purchased the Sutton live stream, and assuming it works, you might want to watch this one from behind a cushion.


COYP!

Richard


Note:

Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.

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