Preview - Woking (h)

Woking are the visitors on Saturday in the first of two home games on the bounce with Notts looking to extend their current unbeaten run against a team just below them in the league in 7th place.

Woking, although not pulling up any trees, will likely be happier with their start to the season than Notts who are just above the Cardinals thanks to a slightly superior goal difference, albiet Notts have played a game less.


Looking at the radar above its home advantage that should give the Magpies the edge which is much better over recent form than Woking's away form.


Woking record so far:

P 11 | W 5 | D 2 | L 4 | GF 17 | GA 13 | GD +4 | PTS 17 | PPG 1.54


Notts record so far:

P 10 | W 5 | D 2 | L 3 | GF 17 | GA 11 | GD +6 | PTS 17 | PPG 1.70


Goals by time segment for Woking:

Goal time segments for Notts:


Nearly half of the goals conceded by Woking have been in the last 15 mins but they haven't conceded any second half goals in the first 30 mins after the restart.


Woking are averaging 1.54 goals per game and average 9.18 goal attempts per game meaning they average a goal every 5.94 attempts.


Notts are averaging 1.70 goals per game and average 12.40 goal attempts per game meaning they average a goal every 7.49 attempts. This would suggest Notts are more of a threat in attack but slightly more wasteful in front of goal.


Woking are conceding an average of 1.18 goals per game compared to Notts who concede 1.10 goals per game on average.


Regarding xG I am going to be trialling a new source for data that is focussed on goal attempt difficulty rather than recent form so will hopefully provide a much more accurate account and these results will be published in the post match report with a greater explanation of how this is calculated.


Lead status:

Notts have a better lead status than Woking and continue to have a very low trailing status of just 5.30 mins per match on average.


A win for Notts could see a jump up to 3rd place subject to results elsewhere, defeat could see another slip back down towards mid table.


Again Notts are firm favourites with the bookies at circa 13/20 whereas you can get upwards of 15/4 for an away win.


Based on these odds Notts have an expected 61% chance of winning but normally win 77% of matches with these odds.


Woking's odds suggest they have a 21% chance of winning but they actually overachieve in matches with these odds winning 55% of games.


More injury woes for Neal Ardley with Sam Graham now out following an incident in training leaving him a little bare at the back.


I fully expected to see the Notts manager revert back to a 4-3-3 against Dagenham but surprisingly he stuck with the 4-2-3-1 that served him so well against Wealdstone. Woking will be a slightly different prospect and despite having home advantage I wouldn't be surprised to see a tweak to that formation.


The stats would suggest Notts have the edge but the Magpies will need to be more ruthless in front of goal against a Woking side that will be well drilled and won't allow them the number of chances they have enjoyed, and in some cases squandered over the last couple of games.


COYP!

Richard


Note:

Betting odds are only used as another means to assess current form and sporting industry expectations of possible result. Notts County Stats do not endorse any form of gambling or betting industry associated businesses.

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