xG? - National League Play Off Final

Updated: Nov 23, 2020

For one final time this season I wanted to try and drill down on some of the stats for both Notts and Harrogate to see if there is any way we can try and predict a result for what has to be the tightest play off final in any league for a long time.


In order to do this I have researched a number of metrics around goals and goal attempts to try and determine some kind of expected goals (xG) formula as well as attacking and defending efficiencies.


I have then looked at these metrics for the whole season (league only) and last 6 including the play off semi finals to see if that provides any further insight.


Finally I have thrown in the fact that Harrogate have spent the season playing on a plastic pitch at the GNC which would potentially have given them an advantage and compared this to their results playing on grass.


The results will hopefully be a score prediction of sorts, just don't hold me to it.


Firstly lets look at goal attempts taken and goal attempts faced.


For the league season Notts averaged 10.79 attempts on goal per game and faced 10.21 attempts per game from the opposition.


Harrogate were a little bit busier than Notts at both ends of the pitch averaging 12.86 attempts on goal and facing an average of 11.65 attempts per game from their opposition.